摘要
水文灾变事件是指超过某一阀值的暴雨、洪水事件或低于某一阀值的干旱事件。本文基于算术信息预测中可公度性原理、初步探讨了水文灾变事件概周期(灰周期).外推的数列预测方法。应用数值仿真和汉口站实际发生的大水年份历史资料作检验,说明这类方法有一定参考价值和独到之处。
This paper, addresses the problems of flood and drought forecasting associated with hydrologic disastrous events. A method of the arithmetic information forecasting, in terms of the concept of the commensurability of hydrologic disasters and their grey period extension, is proposed as a possible approach of long-term hydrologic forecasting. Two examples, the numerical imitation test and flood event forecasting of Hankou Station of the Yantze River, are used for verification and a preliminary explanation of the application of this method is given.
关键词
洪水
预测
可公度性
floods
forecasting commensurability
