摘要
分析讨论了台湾地区 7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系 ,指出 1999年台湾 7.6级大震后 2～ 3年内 ,本区将有 5～ 6级中强震发生 .同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测 .结论表明 ,该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践 .
Discussing the correlation between the large earthquakes (Ms≥7) in Taiwan Region and the moderate-strong earthquakes in Jiangsu-south Yellow Sea area, the paper points out that there exists the risk of earthquakes with magnitude 5～6 in 2000～2003 after the Taiwan Ms 7.6 earthquake in 1999. Having tested the seismic data from 1905 to 1999 in this area, we found most Ms≥4.7 earthquakes possess outstanding characteristics of the multiplied nine days. By applying commensurable model and the leading earthquake, analysis and prediction have been made in detail. The results indicate that this method can be used for the short term earthquake prediction in this area.
出处
《地球物理学进展》
CSCD
2002年第1期121-126,共6页
Progress in Geophysics
基金
南京气象学院科研基金资助
