摘要
为评估计及风电出力和电动汽车负荷随机性的城市输电网运行安全,提出了一种以高压配电网重构为手段的220kV输电网安全概率评估模型。基于相关变量的联合概率分布得到含电动汽车的负荷概率模型描述负荷的波动性,定义弹性安全距离作为安全裕度评估指标,将可用传输容量与拓扑结构结合起来刻画输电网的安全裕度;然后利用三点估计法将不确定性评估问题转化成确定性数学问题求解,再用Cornish-Fisher展开级数得到评估结果的概率特性。最后以某城市局部高压配电系统为算例验证模型的有效性,算例结果表明,高压配电网重构产生弹性裕度是提高城市输电网安全概率的有效调节方式,评估结果可为实际电网调度提供决策依据。
In order to evaluate safety of urban transmission network under randomness of wind power output and electric vehicle load, a probabilistic security model is proposed based on reconfiguration of HV distribution network. A load probabilistic model describing load fluctuation is derived based on joint probabilistic distribution of correlative variables, and resilient steady distance is defined as its index, combining available transmission capacity and topology. Then the uncertainty problem is transformed into a deterministic mathematical problem with the three-point estimation method, and Cornish-Fisher expansion series is used to obtain the probabilistic properties of evaluation results. Simulation results show that the proposed evaluation model is effective and provides reliable indicators for operational decision making.
作者
杨昕然
吕林
许立雄
刘友波
朱承治
熊茜
李勇
YANG Xinran;LU Lin;XU Lixiong;LIU Youbo;ZHU Chengzhi;XIONG Qian;LI Yong(College of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,Sichuan Province,China;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang Province,China;State Grid Tianfu New District Power Supply Company,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China)
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期705-713,共9页
Power System Technology
基金
国家电网公司科技项目(521104170009)~~
