摘要
从短期和长期两个层面分析一国ODI对本国DI产生影响的渠道和机理,并选取2003-2016年中国对东盟10国的面板数据,分别运用面板向量自回归和系统广义矩估计模型,实证检验和分析了我国对东盟ODI的短期和长期国内投资效应。结果表明,我国对东盟直接投资对国内投资的短期影响为显著的替代效应,长期则表现为显著的促进效应,但多方面的原因使这种长期影响力度较小。因此,必须采取多种措施调节中国企业的对外直接投资节奏,优化对外直接投资的结构和质量。
This paper analyzes the channel and mechanism of the influence of ODI on DI in a country from short to long term,and selects the panel data of China to 10 ASEAN countries from 2003-2016. Using panel vector auto regression and system generalized moment estimation model to test and analyze China’s short-term and long-term domestic investment effects on ASEAN ODI. The results showthat the short-term influence of China on the ASEAN ODI on DI is a significant substitution effect. However,there are significant long-term promotion effects on DI in China,but many reasons make this long-term impact less. Therefore,a variety of measures must be taken to adjust the pace of ODI by Chinese enterprises and optimize the structure and quality of ODI.
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第5期104-114,129,M0007,共13页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
