摘要
在能源革命和中国经济新常态的背景下,运用遗传算法和模拟退火法混合方法 (GA-SA法)预测陕西省能源消费结构,提炼了影响陕西省煤炭、石油、天然气消费量和能源消费总量的关键因素;使用1995—2016年间各因子及能源消费的可得数据,通过GA-SA法预测了基准和新常态情景下陕西省2020—2050年煤炭、石油、天然气消费量和能源消费总量及变动趋势。结果表明:新常态情景下的经济增速更有助于陕西省控制能源消费量,陕西省能源消费结构调整和优化的重点首先是天然气对煤炭的替代,其次是非化石能源对煤炭的替代;此外,陕西省需控制固定投资增长速度、提高城镇化水平、促进工业用气、加大对非化石能源的投资、调整高耗能产业,才能合理控制能源消费结构,实现陕西省的可持续发展。
Under the background of the energy revolution and the new normal of China’s economy,the genetic algorithm and the simulated annealing method(GA-SA method) are used to predict the energy consumption structure of Shaanxi Province,and the key factors affecting the consumption of coal,oil,natural gas and total energy consumption were extracted.Based on the available data of various factors and energy consumption from 1995-2016, the total and variation trends of coal,oil,natural gas consumption and energy consumption in Shaanxi Province in 2020-2050 under the baseline and new normal scenarios were predicted by GA-SA method. The results showed that the economic growth under the new normal scenario was more conducive to the control of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province. The adjustment and optimization of energy consumption structure in Shaanxi Province should focus on the substitution of natural gas for coal firstly,followed by the substitution of non-fossil energy for coal. In addition,Shaanxi Province needed to control the growth rate of fixed investment,improve the level of urbanization,promote industrial gas consumption,increase investment in non-fossil energy,and adjust highenergy-consuming industries to rationally control energy consumption structure and achieve sustainable development in Shaanxi Province.
作者
闫晓霞
Yan Xiaoxia(Research Center of Energy Economics and Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710054,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2018年第10期18-24,共7页
Coal Economic Research
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71704140)
陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目(16JK1481)
西安科技大学哲学社会科学繁荣项目(2018SY03)
西安科技大学博士启动金(2018QDJ002)
