摘要
用实测资料分析比较了出口水位为 31.0 m时 ,洞庭湖调蓄量的变化趋势及影响调蓄量的各种因素。用多元线性回归方法建立了调蓄量经验公式 ,并用该公式计算分析了各因素对调蓄量变化的影响。结果表明 ,该公式能够较全面地反映调蓄量变化的原因 。
Dongting Lake is well known for its flood preventing and controlling power in the mid reach of Yangtse River. The present paper has given an analysis of the evolving trend of the flood storing capacity of the lake and the multiplicity of the factors causing the change in recent years. The results of our analysis show that the capacity changes with six main factors acting on. The analysis has enabled the authors to establish an empirical formula by means of a multivariate linear regression based on the data gained in our investigation. Next, the variation of the flood capacity was also analyzed with the corresponding change of its influential factors from year to year with the formula. And finally five conclusions are obtained as follows. First, with the increase of the flood - controlling level of Chenglingji Station, the flood storing capacity of the lake decreases. Second, with the discharge of Jianli Station being the same, the flood storage capacity increases due to the artificial cut offs of Yangtse River in 1970s. Third, the deposition in the Lake leads to the decrease of flood storage capacity. Fourth, the deposition increase of the main river course leads to the increase of the flood storing capacity of the lake. And, fifth, the deposition increase of the main river course is actually the chief factor causing the flood storage capacity increase of the lake. This conclusion can also be applicable for distinguishing the different effects of the deposition and land reclamation. The authors' investigation shows that 1 km 2 land reclamation will result in 7.66×10 4 T deposition in the lake. Finally, the above equation helps to disclose the radical causes of the flood capacity variation. Furthermore, the authors' research is also revealing for the reconstruction of the Yangtse River' flood controlling project in the Dongting Lake area as well as the whole mid reach.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
2001年第6期26-30,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金委和水利部重大资助项目 (59890 2 0 0 )
关键词
调蓄量
多元线性回归
淤积
围垦
洪水位
多因素作用
洞庭湖
防洪
flood storage capacity
multivariate linear regression
deposition
land reclamation
flood level
