摘要
采用 GISS Transient B模型和黑河、哈尔滨、长春、沈阳、延吉等 5个样点近 4 0年的逐日气候资料 ,在计算机上生成了我国东北平原未来 10年、 30年和 5 0年的气候渐变情景 ;将 CERES系列模型 (包括大豆、玉米、水稻 3种作物 )在上述各样点不同年份的气候渐变情景下运行 ,并将模拟结果与当前气候条件下的模拟值相比较 ,评价了气候变化及大气 CO2 浓度增长对研究区域作物布局和品种布局的阶段性影响 ;还利用若干农业气候指标 ,结合各样点的气候渐变情景 ,分析了我国冬小麦安全种植北界在研究地区可能出现的地理位移。在此基础上 ,就东北平原未来的作物与品种布局 ,以及能否安全种植冬小麦等提出具体意见 ,供有关部门在制定农业中。
The gradual climate change scenarios in the Northeast China Plain in 2010, 2030 and 2050 were generated, using output of the GlSS Transient B model and the mean daily climatic data near 40 years (1960～1997) taking from 5 sites, i.e., Heihe, Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang and Yanji. The CERES models involving soybean, maize and rice were run under both the baseline weather and the climate change scenarios. Then the effects of climate change and atmospheric CO 2 ascent on the crop and varietal dispositions were evaluated, based on comparison of the simulated yields of the 3 crops in these two cases. The possible geographical shift of the safe northern limit for winter wheat in the studied region was also assessed. Finally, several adaptation strategies for food crop production in the concerned region were advanced, which provide a scientific basis and serve as a reference for making the middle and long term agricultural policies.
出处
《作物学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第1期24-31,共8页
Acta Agronomica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (3 9870 5 3 1)
