摘要
在充分有效的金融市场条件下 ,利率、汇率与国际资本流动三者间的互动关系形成一种自平衡机制 ,而利率平价模型就是该种机制的抽象体现。对于经济和金融都处在转型期的我国来说 ,这种自平衡机制尚未生成 ,三者之间是一种不协调的关系。但是 ,随着我国金融体制改革的深化 ,自平衡机制将会逐步在我国确立。本文在分析利率平价模型在中国的适用性的基础上 ,引入制度摩擦系数 ,导出适合于我国国情的利率平价模型 ,并且用该公式的演化过程来对自平衡机制的逐步建立过程给以表述。同时在分析我国制度环境的基础上 ,对利率、汇率、国际资本流动三者之间不协调的关系作出理论分析 ,对人民币汇率的升 (贬 )值压力予以预测。
In fully effective financial market, mutual connection among interest rate, exchange rate and international capital flow forms a self*Mequilibrium system embodied by interest rate parity model(IRP). China is witnessing a transition from a planning economy to a market economy, and there is no such self*Mequilibrium system but an inconsistent relationship in between exchange rate and interest rate formed by international capital flowing. However, with the development of financial system's reform, a self*Mequilibrium system will come into being in China step by step.With a factual illustration for the applicability of IRP in China, the thesis intends to deduce and IRP model fitting into the Chinese context by introducing a frictional modulus of system. It also depicts the process of forming self*Mequlibrium system by picturing the evolution of IRP. meanwhile,it analyses the inconsistent relationship between exchange rate, interest rate and international capital flow, and predicts the pressure of devaluation or revaluation of RMB.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第2期14-19,共6页
Journal of Finance and Economics
关键词
利率平价模型
交易成本
制度摩擦系数
国际资本流动
自平衡机制
中国
人民币汇率
interest rate parity model(IRP)
transaction costs
frictional modulus of system
international capital flow
self*Mequilibrium system
