摘要
本方法是针对江苏抗台防涝的需要,重点解决当台风进入“台风暴雨警戒区“时必须作出:本省是否有大于100毫米和200毫米的降水?如有,则全省过程总雨量最大能下多少?落区、落时?在因子选取方面,是紧紧围绕着台风暴雨发生的基本物理因子和有利的环境场,通过普查和人机结合筛选出优异的预报因子,最终用逐步回归的数学统计模型建立出相应的五个预报方程。它们的历史拟合和预报实践能力均是理想的。
This paper presents a method of forcasting region of thphoor ramgush quantitatively and objectively,By this method,the following information can be obtained: i) whether there will be a rainfall over 100 mm and 200 mm is amount ii) if there is , where and when the maximum total rainfall will be measured. In this method, fundamental physical factors and suitably environmental field must be selected and used, Fine forecasting equations are established.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第4期457-463,共7页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
