摘要
本文用早涝等级资料,根据文献的公式计算了华北1470—1979年的逐年旱灾指数。结果表明,公元1637—1643年是该区近500年来旱灾持续时间最长、程度最重的时段。此间年降水和5—9月的降水量与常年同期相比,至少偏少1—5成。通过这次旱灾对当时杜会经济和政治影响的研究和分析说明,频繁而严重的自然灾害不仅是影响杜会经济稳定,同时也是影响社会政治稳定的重要因素。
In this paper, the annual drought index during 1470-1979 in North China are calculated.It is shown that this region suffered from the most serious droughts which lasted the longest periods in the last 500 years. The annual precipitation and the precipitaion of May-September in this period were decreased at least by 10-50 percent than the normal precipitation in the same period. And it is shown that the frequent and serious natural colamity are the main factors affecting the stabilities of not only the social economy, but also the social politics.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第3期17-21,共5页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
国家自然科学基金
