摘要
影响环境质量的因素很多 ,它们所起作用各异 ,为尽可能客观地找出其中的关键因子 ,有针对性地进行环境治理或准确地评价环境治理效果 ,设计了一套直接寻找关键因子的方法 ,称作增量趋势法。该法是利用环境监测数据Ci 与标准值Cis,计算出各因子的相对超标量 yi1=[Ci(t) -Cis]/Cis 及相对变化量yi2 =[Ci(t) -Ci(t- 1) ]/Ci(t- 1) ;根据相对超标量yi1和相对变化量 yi2的符号 (>0或≤ 0 )的不同组合方式 ,将各因子分成 4种状态 ,再在各状态中 ,依 yi1和 yi2 的数值大小进行子排序 ;最后 ,由各因子所处的状态与位次进行总排序 ,找出关键因子。为说明该方法如何运用 ,以南京市内秦淮河水质为例 ,分析了各水污染因子所处的状态 ,并进行了排序 ,同时还与传统方法做了简单的对比。结果表明增量趋势法具有如下特点 :(1)物理意义明确 ,分析方法简明 ,适宜于用计算机和环境信息数据库进行自动分析 ;(2 )由于增量趋势法是利用原始监测数据 ,通过简单运算来寻找关键因子的 ,因此 ,能客观地判别各污染因子所起的作用 ,揭示污染治理的效果 ,找出污染加剧的原因 ,增加评价的准确性 ,减少治理时的盲目性 ;(3)趋势增量法同时还考虑了污染因子的动态演变过程 ,可分析随时间推移各因子趋于好转或恶化的变化趋势 。
There are many factors and different actions, which impact environmental quality. In order to find out the key factors among them as objective as possible and to directly control environmental pollution factors or to evaluate accurately the effect of control, a method of looking directly for key factors is designed. This method is named the increment trend method. First, based on the environmental monitoring data C\-i(t) and standard C\-\{is\}, the relative excess standard quota (y\-\{i1\}=[C\-i(t)-C\-\{is\}]/C\-\{is\}) and relative change amount (y\-\{i2\}=[C\-i(t)-C\-i(t-1)]/C\-i(t-1)) of each factor are calculated. Second, on the basis of the sign(>0 or≤0) of y\-\{i1\} and y\-\{i2\}, four situations are divided for each factor. And in each situation, the sub-precedence of each factor is distinguished according to the data amount of the quantity of y\-\{i1\} and y\-\{i2\}. Third, on account of the situation as well as precedence of each factor, the general precedence of factor is put in order. Then the key factors can be found. We use the water quality of Inner Qinhuai River in Nanjing as example to introduce the application of this method. Moreover, the differences between this method and traditional method are compared. The results show that the increment trend method has many characteristics as below mentioned. (1) Physical meaning is clear and analysis method is simple. This method is available for automatic analysis used computer and environmental information data pool. (2) The increment trend method finds key factors by using primary monitoring data and simple calculation, therefore, it can objectively determine the actual actions of each factor, illustrate effects of pollution control and find out the cause of increasing pollution. Then it is available for enhancing the accuracy of assessment and reducing the blindness during control pollution. (3) Meanwhile, pollution dynamic development process is also considered in the increment trend method. Consequently, This method can directly analyze each factor change trend that may become worse or better with the passage of time. The increment trend method can predict future development of each factor more accurate than many static methods.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第5期465-472,共8页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学重点基金资助项目 (4 98310 70 )
