摘要
借鉴了数学上降元法解多元方程的思路 ,分步进行地震三要素的短临预报尝试。首先确定一个较大尺度的研究区域 ,确定所预报震级下限 ,用多条短临预报指标和自适应加权综合集成概率模式预报时间 ;又在有时间预报的前提下 ,利用地震活动性图象确定最危险的具体地点 ;再根据前兆异常幅度和持续时间、异常数量以及宏观异常情况估计可能的震级范围 ,从而初步实现地震的三要素短临预报。该方法具有较好的可操作性。
Using a mathematical method of solving multi-equation for reference and trying to perform short-impending of three seismic factors. Namely, first a fairly large sized studying area is determined and then a low limit of predicted magnitude. The multi short-impending prediction indexes and probability mode of comprehensive integration of self-adaptation weight is used to predict the time. Under the precondition of having time prediction, a seismicity pattern is used to determine the most risk location. Then based on the precursory anomalous amplitude, duration time, anomalous quantity and macro anomalies, a possible magnitude is estimated. The three factors of short-impending prediction are primarily realized. This method has a fairly good operability.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第4期315-320,共6页
Journal of Seismological Research
基金
云南省地震局青年地震科学基金 ( 99-10 )
关键词
短临预报
决策方案
云南
地震预报
地震活动性
前兆异常
震级
short-impending prediction, decision-making scenario, west Yunnan earthquake test site and nearby
