摘要
鉴于我国旱涝等重大气候灾害发生频繁且造成严重经济损失,开展我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究不仅具有重大科学意义,而且是适应国家社会和经济发展的需求,具有重大应用价值。“我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究”项目经过前两年的研究,很好地完成了预期的科学目标,并在几个方面取得重大进展。本项目对气候系统各圈层的变化及其相互作用,特别是对东亚气候系统各子系统的变化及其相互作用作深入分析研究,提出“东亚气候系统”、“东亚季风-暖池-ENSO循环相互作用”以及“高原大气热力适应”等与我国重大气候灾害形成机理有关的新理论,并在ENSO循环机理和数值模式研究取得突破,从而使我国对ENSO事件预测水平有较大提高;项目在上述理论研究的基础上提出我国跨季度气候异常的数值预测模型,成功地预测了我国1998—2000年夏季发生的严重旱涝气候灾害;项目成功进行了“我国西北干旱区陆-气相互作用观测试验”,获取了许多有关我国典型干旱区陆-气相互作用宝贵的科学观测数据,为开发大西北提供了可靠的气候环境资料。这些成果的取得,为今后3年的研究和最终完成项目5年的科学目标奠定了坚实的理论和数值模型基础。
Since severe drought and flood climatic disasters frequently occurredand brought huge economic losses in China, thus, to proceed the research on the formation mechanism and prediction theory of severe climatic disasters in China not only is of important scientific meaning, but also suitable for the developing needs of national society and economy. It is of great applicative values. The project of 'Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climate Disasters in China' has well finished the expectant scientific targets through the studies for previous two years, and has got great progress in the following aspects. This project has made deepening analyses for the variability of various spheres of climate system and the interaction between these spheres, especially for the variability of various subsystems of East Asian climate system and the interaction between them and put forward some new theories, such as the East Asian climate system, the East Asian monsoon-West Pacific warm pool-ENSO cycle interaction and the thermal adaptation in the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau etc., which are associated with formation mechanism of severe climatic disasters in China. Moreover, this project has got a new breakthought in the studies of the physical mechanism and numerical model of ENSO cycle, and this has led to increase of prediction accuracy for the occurrence of ENSO event. On the basis of the above-mentioned studies, this project has also proposed the numerical prediction model of extraseasonal climate anomalies in China and has successfully predicted the serious drought and flood disasters occurred in the summers of 1998-2000 in China. Besides, this project successfully carried out 'The Observational Experiment on the Air-Land Interaction in Arid Area of Northwest China' and has got many valuable observed scientific data associated with the airland interaction in the typical arid area of China, which may provide the reliable climatic and environmental data for the implementing 'The strategy of developing Northwest China' . These scientific achievements set firm bases of theory and numerical model to the studies for the following three years and to the finishing of the scientific targets of this project for five years.
出处
《中国基础科学》
2001年第8期4-8,共5页
China Basic Science
