摘要
给水管网无论采用何种管材 ,随着时间的推移都会不可避免地发生漏失。根据实际给水管网的漏失数据 ,采用时间序列分析方法建立了给水管网漏失预测的线性指数平滑模型和二次曲线指数平滑模型。通过精度分析和比较 ,发现二次曲线指数平滑模型预测精度高于线性指数平滑模型 ,能更好地反映给水管网漏失频率随时间非线性增加的变化趋势。
It is evident that pipes will leak sooner or later regardless of the materials that they were made of. Applying time sequence analysis, leak frequency changing with time could be forecasted based on the history of recorded leakage. By comparison, it is found that the second order multinomial exponential smoothing model fits the leak trends with time better than the liner exponential smoothing model.
出处
《给水排水》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第10期94-96,共3页
Water & Wastewater Engineering
