摘要
森林害虫以往多是考虑一定面积上虫情发生量的预报,很少考虑虫情蔓延扩散情况及周围地区虫情的影响。某个林区的昆虫种群数量除自身变动外,还受周围林区种群数量变化的影响,同时各林区内种群数量变化又是时间的函数,这种复杂的相关性称为空间-时间相关关系。由于它充分考虑了林区内部及林区之间的相互影响,因此它可以用来对昆虫种群的空间-时间动态作出相关预报。我国林业害虫,由于发生面积大,如果调查的样地太少,则会遗漏某些害虫发生区,如果详细调查,则要投入大量人、物力,因此,本文提出在较少量的调查基础上。
This paper deals with the use of spatial autocorrelation method to estimate the insect population density on a comparatively large area through a survey on several small sample plots, basing on the spatial correlation of insect population. The estimated formula of autocorrelation variance is : r~*=∑(z(x_i+h)-z(x_i))~2/2N. The linear estimated coefficient equation is : A■=M. The residuals of estimation have been worked out while the calculation of the population density of Dendrolimus punctatus is conducted as example. This method may be used to estimate the population density of agricultural and forest insects, the level of damage, etc.
出处
《林业科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第4期475-478,共4页
Scientia Silvae Sinicae
关键词
森林
害虫
空间自相关
密度估计
Spatial autocorrelation
Density estimate
Dendrolimus punctatus
