摘要
考虑了气候系统中一些变量突变时可能对预测关系的改变作用 ,用 ARIMA( Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average)动态模型的建摸方法 ,通过 SAS软件的计算 ,建立河内冬作物生长季降水量预测模型。用 1 996～ 1 998年的独立资料检验 。
A model is established to predict winter precipitation in Hanoi by means of dynamic ARIMA model and SAS software.The possible effect on the forecasting of precipitation caused by the fluctuation of some variables in the climatic system is considered in the model.The model is assessed by 1996~1998 independent data.It is shown that computational results of model are generally consistent with the observation data.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第3期433-436,共4页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
