摘要
用 Monte- Carlo模拟方法建立了上海的台风年最大风速概率分布 ,由此推算的 30 a、50 a一遇风速 (韦伯尔分布 )和实测风速值接近。表明由 Monte- Carlo模拟方法得到的台风年最大风速概率分布较为合理 ,在东南沿海台风多发区域 ,该方法是产生年最大风速概率分布的有力工具。
The probability distribution of annual typhoon maximum wind speed in Shanghai is developed through the Monte Carlo simulation method.The 30 year and 50 year return period wind speed estimations are correspond to the observations.The results show that the annual probability distribution of typhoon maximum wind speed in Shanghai is reliable and the Monte Carlo method is a good tool for developing annual probability distribution of wind speed in coastlands where are prone to tropical cyclone each year.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第3期410-414,共5页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目 5 9895 41 0
