摘要
综合了趋势法、分块预测法、相关法、分行业重复利用率提高法等方法的优点 ,导出了包含以上诸方法的综合预测通用公式 ,该公式具有结构简单、通用性强的特点 ,从理论上揭示了常用预测方法的内在联系 ,尤其便于编制计算机通用软件 ,为大区域水资源规划与管理中涉及多部门、多行业复杂组成的工业系统的需水量预测提供了一个有效的方法 .实际应用表明 ,本文方法与供需分析和优化配置模型集成 。
The prediction of industrial water demand is one of the important parts for the management of water resources. In this paper, a formula for synthetic universal prediction is developed by the synthesis of merits of the tendency method, the block prediction method, the correlation method, and the utilization rate raising method of repeated utilization by different trades. The formula, with the characteristics of simple structure and universality, reveals theoretically the internal relations between the conventional prediction methods, and with it the universal software is easy to be programmed. An effective method is also provided for water demand prediction for complicated industrial systems involving various departments and trades in water resources management of large regions. Practical application shows that the formula can improve the flexibility and efficiency of scheme analysis by integration of supply demand analysis and the optimization configuration model.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第4期67-71,共5页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
关键词
工业需求水量
水资源规划
预测方法
prediction
industrial water demand
synthesis
formula
software
