摘要
用根据 CCA方法设计的一个统计预报模式对我国 3个月平均气温距平进行预报试验 ,并用交叉检验方法进行估计。结果表明 :预报技巧随提前时间增长而减小得较少 ;用全球表面温度作预报因子有较高的预报技巧 ;7、8、9月 3个月较易预报 ,而1 0、1 1、1 2月 3个月较难预报。
A statistical model is CCA designed to forecast 3 month mean temperature anomaly in China,which is estimated by using cross verification scheme,indicating that the skill decreases slowly with the increased leading time intervals;higher skills are found for quasi global surface temperature as a predictor;it's easy to predict JAS temperature and hard to deal with OND analog.Some meaningful results are obtained from the forecast skill analysis.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第2期171-177,共7页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 G1 9980 4 0 90 1 -3资助
