摘要
美国经济在持续近 1 0年的强劲扩张后 ,自去年下半年以来急速下滑。美联储接连 3次降息共 1 .5个百分点 ,仍未遏制滑势。形势比预期严重 ,谷底尚未显现 ,调整期可能延长 ,但传统意义上的衰退似可避免 ,更不会重蹈日本经济长期低迷不振之覆辙。
Three successive US Fed interest rate cuts have yet to check the economic slide begun last summer. Factors at work are the business cycle, an excessive tight money, oil price hikes, 'negative wealth effect' from stocktumbles and misleading economic message derived from change of guards at the White House. Problems include overinvestment in the course of the long-term boom and mounting products in stock, the reduction of which led to manufacturing recession. The burst of the stock exchange bubble, notably the tumble of the NASTAQ index, the symbol of the New Economy, led to the reversal of the 'Wealth effect', thus cooling private consumption making up two thirds of GDP. However, an overall analysis points to stable economic fundamentals, normal major economic indicators, sustained progress of service trades accounting for over 75 percent of GDP, the lowest unemployment in 30 years, low inflationary pressures, spacious room for macroeconomic control, continuing lure to foreign capital of U.S. market and the dollar remaining the haven for global currencies. Though readjustments unavoidable, a recession in the conventional sense seems unlikely and a protracted depression, Japanese style, out of the question.
出处
《现代国际关系》
CSSCI
北大核心
2001年第4期12-15,共4页
