摘要
本文分析了中国耕地资源、人口、粮食的历史变化特点和规律，利用灰色预测模型预测了中国未来几十年耕地资源的变化趋势，并结合中国人口的增长和粮食的需求，阐述了中国耕地资源未来面临的危机。
his paper presents forecast on the future trend of the cultivated land changes in China by using the grey forecast model, based on analyses of the characteristic changes of cultivated land, population and total grain yield in the past.Crisis of cultivated land resources confronting China was indicated through studying the relationship between growth and the grain supply/demand.
出处
《自然资源》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第4期1-7,共7页
关键词
中国
耕地资源
粮食总产量
灰色预测模型
人口
ultivated land resources
Total grain yield
Per capita grain yield
Grey forecast model
