摘要
本文讨论了海面变化趋势预测的困难,指出仅根据三四十年的验潮资料作未来数十年乃至上百年的长期变化趋势预测是不可靠的。而对于一二十年的海面变化趋势预测,则应顾及周期变化的影响,并建议采用动态预测的方法,以便随着资料的积累逐步精化预测结果。文中详细介绍了具体方法,并结合实例作了初步讨论。
The difficulties in trend prediction of sea level change are discussed in this paper.It is pointed out that the prediction for several decades or even over 100 years in the future based on the tide data accumulated in the past 30 to 40 years might be unreliable.In another the trend prediction of sea level change for one or two decades the influnces of periodic sea level changes should be taken into account,and a so-called Dynamical Prediction Method is suggested,so that the predicted values can be refined step by step as a consequence of the data accumulation.Integrating an example,the method is explaimed in detail,and primary discussion is also made.
出处
《海洋通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第1期1-6,共6页
Marine Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金9488007号大型项目与中国科学院87-45-03号重大项目联合资助课题
