摘要
本文以一栋5029m^2的公共建筑21周实测数据为依据,提出了一种关于严寒地区建筑采暖负荷的CARMA 系统辨识模型.由此,可以根据室外温度的预报值及室内温度的期望值估计建筑采暖系统供热量.分析结果表明,实测值与预测值间的平均相对误差为6.45,从而说明了该种方法的有效性.这种方法也同样适用于城市小区供热量及小供热锅炉房的供热量预报.
Based on the in-site testing data of a 5029m^2 public building,for 21 weeks theidentification model of CARMA of the building heating load in cold region has beenshown.Therefore we can evaluate the heating load of the building from the forecastof the outside temperature and the expecting value of the indoor temperature.The re-sults show that the relative error between the testing value and the forcasting valueis 6.4% and this method is effectice.This method is also suit for the forecating of the heating load for the city districtheating and smaller sized heating boilers.
关键词
建筑
供热
负荷模型
系统辨识
system identification
recurrence extended least squares
F-test method
