摘要
目的查找适用于研究猩红热发病率和气象因素之间关系的科学方法,探讨邯郸市猩红热发病和气象因素之间的关系。方法收集1972-2010年邯郸市猩红热疫情资料、气象资料和人口资料,采用EpiData 3.0进行"双重录入",用SPSS 17.0统计分析软件建立数据库对数据进行统计分析。结果①气象参数的共线性诊断结果显示,本组气象因子数据容差最小为0.014,方差膨胀因子最大达69.998。②猩红热月发病率的曲线估计方程为y^=1.369-0.230ln(X)。③猩红热和10个气象因素之间均不呈线性关系,猩红热月发病率与月平均风速之间得到曲线拟合方程y^=-0.781+1.242X-0.58X2+0.097X3。结论①邯郸市猩红热和10个气象因素之间不适合做直线相关分析和多元回归分析。②邯郸市猩红热月发病率的模型曲线为对数模型曲线。③猩红热月发病率与月平均风速之间呈三次方程曲线关系,月平均风速是影响猩红热月发病率的主要气象因素。
Objective To look for the scientific method which could apply to research the relationships between scarlet fever incidence and meteorological factors,and to discuss the relationships between them. Methods The data of scarlet fever,meteorological parameters and population during 1997- 2010 of Handan were collected and‘inputted doubly’to EpiData 3. 0. The database was established using SPSS17. 0 statistical analysis software to analyze the data. Results ①Collinearity diagnosis of meteorological parameters showed that the minimal tolerance was 0. 014 and the maximal variance inflation factor was 69. 998. ②The curve estimating equation of scarlet fever incidence was y^= 1. 369- 0. 230ln（ X）. ③There were not linear relationships among scarlet fever monthly incidence and 10 meteorological parameters,The curve fitting equation of scarlet fever monthly incidence and monthly average wind speed was y^=- 0. 781 ＋ 1. 242X- 0. 585X2＋ 0. 097X3.Conclusions ①Linear correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were not suitable for the relationships among scarlet fever and 10 meteorological parameters of Handan. ②The model curve of the monthly incidence of scarlet fever was a model curve of Handan. ③The relationship between scarlet fever and the monthly average wind speed was a cubic equation curve,monthly average wind speed was the main meteorological parameter influencing scarlet fever incidence.
出处
《医学动物防制》
2014年第7期739-741,共3页
Journal of Medical Pest Control
关键词
猩红热
气象因素
曲线估计
曲线拟合
Scarlet fever
Meteorological factor
Curve estimation
Curve fitting
