摘要
中东变局三年多来,地区安全局势变得日益复杂。除了传统热点问题之外,由政治转型引发和激活的地区教俗、教派以及其他各种政治力量之间的斗争和社会矛盾正成为影响地区安全的新因素。埃及围绕支持和反对穆斯林兄弟会的政治博弈不仅造成该国社会分裂,也对地区稳定构成潜在威胁,叙利亚危机久拖不决致使地区极端主义思潮沉渣泛起、恐怖主义势力趁乱扩张并有向区外国家溢出之势。此外,美国战略重心东移导致原有地缘政治格局发生变化,造成地区国家之间关系出现新的紧张,而美俄等大国在中东乃至全球事务中的互动也对中东安全局势产生深刻的影响。未来相当长的时期里,中东传统热点问题依然是影响地区安全和地缘政治关系的主要因素,而持续深入转型将成为中东各国政治和社会发展的主要特征。中国与中东关系将基于这一趋势而发展,中国的中东外交也应以此为重点,更加积极主动地参与中东事务,促进热点问题的和平解决,并尽自己所能帮助中东国家实现平稳转型。
Three years into the upheaval, the security situation in the Middle East has become increasingly complicated. Apart from traditional hot-spot issues, regional secular-sacred rivalry, sectarian conflicts, and political strife among different forces activated by political transformation have become new factors threatening regional security. The political game between pro-Brotherhood and anti-Brotherhood forces in Egypt has torn apart the society, breeding potential threats to regional stability. The protracted and unsettled Syrian crisis has kicked up the dust of regional extremism and enabled terrorists groups to expand by exploiting the turmoil,threatening a spillover effect on regions beyond. Moreover, the U.S. strategic rebalance to Asia has changed the regional geopolitics, creating new tensions among regional powers. Interplay among major powers like the U.S. and Russia on Middle Eastern and global affairs have influenced the security situation in the Middle East. For quite a long time in the future, traditional hot-spot issues in the Middle East will remain the major factor affecting regional security and geopolitics, and the prolonged and profound transition will remain the single most prominent feature in Middle Eastern political and social development. China's relations with the Middle East and its foreign policy toward the region will be based and focused on these realities. China will have greater involvement in Middle Eastern affairs with a view to helping peacefully settle hot-spot issues and contributing to stable transitions in regional countries.
出处
《国际展望》
CSSCI
2014年第3期22-34,154-155,共13页
Global Review
