摘要
化石能源的发现和利用使人类告别了农耕文明进入了工业文明,同时,化石能源带来的环境问题和气候问题日益严峻,未来地球的可持续发展呼唤人类由工业文明迈向生态文明,这个转变的基础是新的能源革命。对中国环境容量和气候容量的宏观定量分析表明,中国迫切需要转变粗放的发展方式,推动能源革命。目前和今后几十年间,化石能源仍将是主导能源之一,因此,化石能源的高效、洁净化利用具有重要意义,但还不是治本的能源革命。包括页岩气在内的非常规天然气,对缓解环境和气候问题会作出贡献,但天然气在中国一次能源结构中的占比最多可提高到百分之十几,所以"页岩气革命"或"页岩气时代"的口号在中国并不恰当。能源结构由化石能源为主阶段,经过一个多元结构阶段,转变到非化石能源为主是必然的发展方向,可再生能源与核能将共同为此作出贡献。可再生能源中,非水可再生能源的比重将逐步提高,其市场竞争力(经济性)的提高有赖技术创新,可再生能源是未来地球的支柱能源。中国乃至世界核能的发展虽受到福岛事故的影响,但人类不可能弃核,安全、稳步、规模发展核电是中国的理性选择,从核裂变电站到未来的核聚变电站是一个必然的发展方向和历史过程,核能将成为可持续发展的能源,成为未来地球的另一个能源支柱。中国需要树立新的能源安全观,大力节能、并转变能源的供需模式,由"粗放的供给满足增长过快的需求",转变为"由科学的供给满足合理的需求"。应对全球的环境问题和气候变化,需要各国共同努力,能源革命是可持续未来的基础,国际合作空间广阔,人类解决全球变化问题的出路只能是合作共赢。
As fossil fuels have helped human to get rid of dependence on agricultural civilization and embark on industrial civilization and have brought about serious environmental problems and climate change, the earth is calling for human to move on from industrial civilization to ecological civilization to reach a sustainable future, where the basis is a new ＇energy revolution＇. A macroscopic quantitative analysis of China＇ s environmental capacity and climate capacity shows that China is in an urgent need to change the extensive mode of development and promote an energy revolution. At present and in the next few decades, fossil fuels will remain one of the leading energies in China＇ s energy mix. So, efficient and clean use of fossil fuels is important. But this is not an energy revolution which is the only fundamental solution. Unconventional gases including shale gas play a role in mitigation of environmental problems and climate change, but slogans like ＇ revolution of shale gas＇ or ＇ era of shale gas＇ are not appropriate to China because proportion of natural gas in primary energy structure in the country can be increased to a maximum of 20%. The Chinese energy structure＇ s transition from a stage dominated by fossil fuels to a stage of multiple components and then to a stage dominated by nonfossil fuels is the inevitable direction, and renewables and nuclear energy will contribute to this transition. In renewables, proportion of non-water renewables will gradually increase. Improvement of their market competitiveness （economical efficiency ） relies on technological innovation. Renewables will be the mainstay energy source for the earth in future. Despite the impact of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the world, including China, will not give up nuclear energy development. Safe, steady and large-scale development of nuclear power is a rational choice of China. Transition from nuclear fission power plant to nuclear fusion power plant is the inevitable direction. Nuclear energy will be a sustainable energy source and another mainstay energy source of the earth in future. China needs to enhance energy security consciousness, vigorously promote energy saving and change the energy supply and demand pattern, and transform ＇ meet a too-fast-growing demand with an extensive supply＇ to ＇ meet a reasonable demand with a rational supply＇. All countries need to work together to address global environmental problems and climate change. Energy revolution is the foundation for a sustainable future. With a wide room for international cooperation, win-win cooperation is the only way of overcoming these challenges.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第7期1-4,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
关键词
能源革命
可持续发展
全球变化
energy revolution
sustainable future
global change
