摘要
为解决高速公路连续下坡路段交通事故，以广东仁新高速公路为例，建立了事故率与事故点前2～5 km的坡度、坡长之间的统计回归模型。结果表明事故率与事故点前2 km和3 km平均坡度之间呈现较为显著的指数关系，即事故率随平均坡度的增大而上升，事故率预测模型为：y＝1．3334e^0．4694x，R^2＝0．8762。
On the basis of relevant research , the paper makes an overall accident probability study on the continuous downhill section on highways ,particularly in Renhua-Xinfeng section of Guangdong Province . The study constructs a statistical regression model indicating the relationship between accident rate , the slope height and length 2-5 kilometers before the accident site .The result shows that the accident rate is significantly correlated with the average slope 2-3 km before the accident site .Specifically , when the average slope be-comes steeper, accident rate goes higher.The prediction model is y=1.333 4e^0.469 4x,R^2 =0.876 2.
出处
《陕西理工学院学报（自然科学版）》
2014年第3期34-36,51,共4页
Journal of Shananxi University of Technology:Natural Science Edition
关键词
连续下坡
平均纵坡
事故预测
回归模型
组合设计
continuous downhill
average longitudinal slope
accident prediction
regression model
combined design
