摘要
综合考虑天津地理位置的特殊性对局地小气候的影响,针对精细到乡镇站点的天津精细化预报订正业务,开展了天津局地小气候分区的精细化气温订正预报方法研究,提出了客观划分小气候订正区域的思路和方法,完成了订正预报试验及评估分析.2012年最高、最低气温订正预报试验表明,该方法订正预报效果好,准确率高,1～5月逐日气温订正预报的平均绝对误差在0.44 ～1.52℃,且预报与实况的空间分布具有很好的一致性.
Considering the impacts of Tianjin＇ s particular geographic location on local microclimate,the fine temperature correction forecast method based on local microclimatic zoning over Tianjin area was studied,which aimed at the stations in villages.Then,the idea and method of objectively dividing microclimatic correction regions were proposed,and the correction prediction tests and evaluation analysis were finished as well.The correction prediction tests for the maximum and minimum temperature in 2012 showed that the above method performed well in correcting temperature forecast and owned high accuracy.The averaged absolute errors of daily prediction for temperature correction from January till May were 0.44-1.52 ℃.The predicted and the real spatial distribution of temperature had an excellent consistency.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2014年第19期6304-6308,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CAMGJ2012-M04)
关键词
局地小气候
客观划分区域
精细化订正
订正预报试验
检验评估分析
Local microclimate
Objective zoning
Fine correction
Forecast correction experiments
Testing evaluation analysis
