摘要
从1985-2012年全国城镇化和居民消费支出的互动关系来看,城镇化同消费支出变化及平均消费倾向变化并无直接关联;从31省(市、自治区)面板数据的空间计量分析来看,目前居民消费增长的主因仍在于收入的提高,经济增长对扩大消费也有显著正影响,但城镇化对消费的影响并不显著。这表明,近年来城镇化率的提高实际上并没有带动居民消费的增长。不确定的未来预期、分割性户籍制度、缺位的社会保障以及相对牢固的习惯习俗,阻断了城镇化同居民消费增长的联系。
The analysis based on nationwide data from1985 to 2012 reveals that urbanization does not bind with thechange of consumption expenditure and the change of averageconsumption propensity. Empirical results obtained from 31 pro-vincial spatial panel data model show that among those factorswhich could influence consumptions the enhancement of residentincomes remains dominant at present; economic development also benefits consumption growth; nevertheless the role of urbanization is insignificant, which means that urbanization does notstimulate consumption growth. The uncertainty of prospect, segmented hukou system, discriminatory social security institutionand relatively stable habitudes blotk the positive effect of urbanization on consumption growth.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期87-93,共7页
Urban Problems
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(10&ZD054)--中国积极参与国际货币体系改革进程研究
关键词
城镇化
消费
空间面板数据模型
urbanization
consumption
Spatial PanelData Model
