摘要
研究气候变化背景下新疆红枣气候区划的变化,对适应气候变化,充分合理地利用农业气候资源,科学制定新疆红枣种植和发展规划,促进新疆红枣产业的持续稳定发展具有重要意义。利用新疆101个气象站1961—2012年的历史气候资料,使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法,在对近52年新疆≥10℃积温、冬季极端最低气温和6—7月平均气温时空变化进行分析的基础上,结合红枣气候区划指标,对气候变化背景下新疆红枣种植气候区划的变化进行了分析。研究结果表明:1)新疆≥10℃积温、冬季极端最低气温和6—7月平均气温的空间分布总体呈现"南疆高、北疆低,平原和盆地高、山区低"的格局。2)近52年新疆≥10℃积温、冬季极端最低气温和6—7月平均气温分别以62.22℃·d·10a-1、0.551℃·10a-1和0.221℃·10a-1的倾向率呈显著上升趋势,并分别于1997年、1982年和1994年发生了突变。受其影响,1997年后新疆红枣适宜种植区面积增至5.05×105 km2,较之前增加1.20×105 km2,占新疆总面积比例增大7.3个百分点;而次适宜种植区面积缩小4.0×104 km2,占新疆总面积比例缩小2.4个百分点;不适宜种植区面积缩小8.01×104 km2,占新疆总面积比例缩小4.9个百分点。气候变化使新疆红枣适宜种植区面积明显扩大,次适宜和不适宜种植区面积有所减小,这种变化对促进新疆红枣产业的发展具有重要意义。
On the backdrop of climate change,changes in climatic zones of jujube planting in Xinjiang was studied.Of significant importance were adaptation to climate change,full rational use of agro-climatic resources,scientific planting of Xinjiang jujube,development planning and promotion of sustainable/stable development of Xinjiang jujube industry.Using long-term（1961-2012） climate data from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang region along with linear regression,cumulative anomaly,t-test and mixed spatial interpolation analyses in ArcGIS environment,the study analyzed the fundamental characteristics of spatio-temporal changes in ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature,extreme minimum temperature in winter and mean temperature for June-July.The impact of climate change on jujube planting zones was studied in relation to climate division index of jujube planting zones.The results showed that spatial distributions of ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature,extreme minimum temperature and mean temperature for June-July obviously varied from place to place in Xinjiang.Generally,these factors were higher in the south than in the north and in the plain/basin than in the mountain regions of jujube planting zones in Xinjiang.On the backdrop of global warming in the last 52 years,≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature,extreme minimum temperature and mean temperature for June-July showed significantly increasing trends by the tendency rate of 62.22 ℃·d·10a-1,0.551 ℃·10a-1 and 0.221 ℃·10a-1,respectively,and with significant changes in 1997,1982 and 1994.With this effect,suitable planting areas of jujube increased by 1.2 × 105 km2 after 1997,representing 7.3 percentage points increase in total area ratio.The areas with sub-suitability for planting jujube decreased by 4.0 × 104 km2,representing 2.4 percentage points decrease in total area ratio.Also areas classified as unsuitable for planting jujube decreased by and 8.0×104 km2,representing 4.9 percentage points decrease in total area ratio.While climate change increased the areas suitable for planting jujube,it decreased sub-suitable area and unsuitable areas for planting jujube in Xinjiang.This was critical for enhancing the development of jujube industry in Xinjiang.
出处
《中国生态农业学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期713-721,共9页
Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金(41375122)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(IDM201201)
科技部农业科技成果转化资金(2013GB24160633)
新疆气象局科研项目(201312
201127)资助
关键词
气候变化
红枣
种植区
气候区划
新疆
Climate change
Jujube
Planting area
Climatic zoning
Xinjiang
