摘要
进入新世纪,中国货物贸易顺差大幅增加,但是服务贸易逆差呈逐年扩大趋势。同时,我国服务贸易总体的贸易竞争力指数为负,且服务业显示性比较优势指数远远小于制造业,因此增强我国服务业竞争力是推动服务贸易良性发展的根本举措。中国服务贸易出口、服务业外商直接投资均与服务业增加值正相关,但服务贸易进口与服务业增加值负相关。误差修正模型估计结果显示,随着时间的延长服务贸易进口对服务贸易出口具有正向作用,并且显著性不断增强。基于VAR模型的格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明,服务贸易出口与服务业外商直接投资存在双向的因果关系,同时服务业外商直接投资与我国服务业增加值也存在双向的因果关系。
Surplus in commodity trade and deficits in service trade have both increased since we entered the new century. For the whole service trade, NTB is negative and RCA is much lower than that of manufacturing industry. This indicates that China＇s service industry is comparatively less competitive, and enhancing competitiveness is essential to its benign development. Service trade export and service FDI both have a positive relationship with service industry value （SIV）, while service trade import demonstrates a negative relationship with SIV. Estimation results of Error Correction Model indicate that, as time extends on, service trade import implements a positive role on service trade export, and significance becomes more obvious. Granger Causality Test based on VAR model shows that there exists bidirectional causality between service export and service FDI, similarly between service FDI and service trade value.
出处
《中国社会科学院研究生院学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期40-49,共10页
Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目(项目号11CJY070)的阶段性成果
