摘要
针对凌期径流量变化幅值较大和不具明显周期性的特点,建立基于灰信息的预测模型,对黄河巴彦高勒站凌期径流量进行预测.通过定义区间灰数的标准映射将白化权函数映射为[0,1]上的函数,并用函数重心估计出预测值的最大可能点.此模型可将径流量预测值限制在一个区间带上,此区间带由上界、下界和最大可能点构成,且预测结果精度较高.
In view of the runoff with larger change amptitude and without obvious periodicity in the ice flood period, the model was built based on Grey Information for forecasting the runoff of Bayangaole Station of the Yellow River in the ice flood period. By defining the standard map of interval grey number, the whitening weight function was mapped into the function in [0,1 ] , and the center of function was used to estimate the maximum possible point of the predictive value. This model could limit the predictive value into an in- terval zone which was composed by lower bound, upper bound and the maximum possible point, and the forecasting precision was high-er.
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2014年第2期21-24,共4页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(71271086)
河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(13A790065)
关键词
冰凌
黄河宁蒙河段
径流量
凌期
三参数
灰信息
ice flood
Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River
runoff
ice flood period
three parameters
Grey Information
