摘要
2012年中国基本实现了城乡居民社会养老保险的制度全覆盖。本文通过一个多阶段世代交叠的可计算一般均衡模型,对这一制度给中国经济带来的短期和长期经济效应进行了量化分析。本文有如下发现:其一,城乡居民社会养老保险中的社会统筹机制降低了参保人群的养老储蓄需求,对调整宏观经济中的消费和投资不平衡有一定积极意义,使社会总消费在短期内上升0.4%,而长期资本存量降低0.7%。其二,城乡居民社会养老保险制度的最重要意义在于实现了非参保人群(城镇就业人员)向参保人群(农村居民和城镇非就业人员)的转移,减轻了社会保障的城乡"二元"差异,有效缩小了城乡收入差距并提高了社会总福利;参保人群和非参保人群间的收入差距将下降7%,社会总福利短期和长期将分别提高0.5%和0.4%;如果提高基本养老金水平,这一效应会更为突出。
China introduced a new pension system for urban and rural residents （without formal jobs） in 2009, and it reached full coverage in 2012. Using a multi - stage over - lapping generations model （Auerbach - Kotlikoff model）, this paper quantifies the economic effects of such a pension system. We have the following findings： （1） By providing public basic pensions, this system will reduce the participants＇ saving demand for retirement, thus it will play a role in China＇ s economic structure adjustment. Consumption will be boosted by 0.4% in the short run; while capital stock will be lowered by 0. 7% in the long run. （2）This system matters more in welfare transfers. Because the subsidies to the participants （mostly rural residents, they are much poorer than the non -participants who are in the urban formal sector） are financed by a general consumption tax, this system actually includes a transfer from urban （ high income） to rural （ low income） groups. Urban - rural income gap will be narrowed by 7%. The aggregate utility will increase by 0.5% in the short run and 0.4% in the long rim. A higher level of basic pension will bring a more significant improvement.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期3-15,共13页
Economic Review
基金
北京市社会科学界联合会青年社科人才资助项目(项目编号:2013SKL008)
国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71103193)
北京高等学校青年英才计划项目(项目编号:YETP0176)的资助
关键词
城乡居民社会养老保险
多阶段世代交叠模型
经济结构调整福利
转移效应
Urban and Rural Residents Pension System
Multi - stage Over - lapping Generations Model
Economic Structure Adjustment
Welfare Transfer
