摘要
为确定定线制水域的航行危险度,确保定线制水域的通航安全,选用组合赋权法(CWM)和未确知测度理论方法,建立航行危险度等级评价和排序模型。定义评价指标未确知测度函数,确定置信度判别准则,分别用层次分析法(AHP)、变异系数法(VCM)获得评价指标的主客观权重,运用2-范数CWM融合主客观权重信息,并利用基于多元联系数的权重一致度检验方法检验权重间的一致性。应用所提出的模型判定5个船舶定线制水域危险度等级,并对其进行排序。研究结果表明:该模型可用于解决定线制水域航行危险度评价中诸多因素的不确定性问题,并可在实际工程中推广应用。
To determine the navigation risk in routeing waters and ensure navigation safety in routeing waters, evaluation and ranking model of navigation risk was built on basis of CWM and unascertained measurement theory. Unascertained measure evaluation functions to determine the evaluation indexes were defined. A confidence criterion was established. AHP and VCM were used respectively to obtain objective and subjective weights of evaluation indexes, 2-norm CWM was used to fusion subjective and objective weighting information, and a consistency inspection of dominant weights was conducted based on multi-ele- ment connection number. Navigation risks in five certain routeing waters were determined and sequenced with proposed model. The results show that the model may consider many kinds of uncertainty factors of navigation risk evaluation in routeing waters and it can be applied to the actual engineering.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期93-99,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51279099)
上海曙光计划项目(12SG40)
上海海事大学校基金资助
上海海事大学研究生创新基金资助(yc2012067)
上海海事大学优秀博士学位论文培育项目(2013bxlp006)
关键词
层次分析法(AHP)
变异系数法(VCM)
2-范数组合赋权法(CWM)
定线制水域
多元联系数
未确知测度
航行危险度
analytic hierarchy process （AHP）
variation coefficient method （VCM）
comprehensive weighing method（CWM） based on two norms
routeing waters
multi-element connection number
unascertained measurement theory
navigation risk
