摘要
作为风灾作用的客体和城市的结构要素,城市的路网格局将直接影响台风风险度的大小和分布。以温州瓯飞项目的规划路网为例,对区域的台风风灾风险度进行研究:①基于瓯飞区域地形进行三个代表风向(北风、东北风、东风)的计算流体力学(CFD)模拟,将风速平均值作为致灾因子危险度的依据;②基于规划的路网格局,以空间句法理论中的集成度变量预测区域未来的经济和社会活动格局,并以经济发展和生命线工程为线索对基于路网格局的承灾体易损性进行量化;③通过"危险度×易损性"原则分别就三个风向得出风灾风险度。文中通过CFD模拟来分析不同风向的风灾危险性有助于将危险度模拟和响应措施具体化;利用结合运动经济体理论的空间句法模型可间接得出区域路网格局下的易损性分布;将研究区域划为特定大小的网格并通过Getis Ord G统计可得出风险度指标的空间分布特性,并可暗示风灾响应措施的有利度。
As the object of wind disaster and the structural elements of a city, the patterns of urban road net- work and its rationality will directly affect the degree and the distribution of typhoon risk. Taking Oufei project in Wenzhou as an example, together with its planned road network, the risk degree of typhoon wind is studied ： （1） in- corporated with the terrain of Oufei District, performed a simulation study of computational fluid dynamics （CFD） on typhoon wind, whose direction was set at 3 typical aspects （north, northeast and east）, to evaluate the hazard degree of disastrous factors by consulting the obtained mean value of wind-velocity; （2） informed by the planned road patterns of the region, predicted the patterns of its social and economical activities on consulting the general integration index in the space syntax theory, and quantified the supporter vulnerability reflected by economical de- velopment and lifeline engineering aspects; （3）through the evaluation principle of ＂hazard degree x supporter vul- nerability＂ , calculated the risk degree of wind disaster respectively under the above 3 wind directions. The CFD simulation test here specific in wind direction could help to manifest the disastrous factors and guide a more pointed response measures against disasters; the application of space syntax associated with the principle of movement eco- nomics could indirectly demonstrate the spatial distribution of city＇ s vulnerability based on the patterns of local road network; the division of the study area into certain-sized grids and the following Getis Ord G statistics on risk de- grees would indicate their spatial distribution patterns, and provide clues for how easy it would be to respond against wind hazards.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期175-181,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
温州市瓯飞区域概念性规划国际征集
