摘要
从气候变化对水循环及水资源系统影响的角度剖析了气候变化对旱涝事件影响的驱动机制,从气候变化对天气系统、下垫面条件、经济社会需水量等方面的影响梳理了现阶段国内外相关研究进展,并总结了气候变化对旱涝事件影响的评估方法。结果表明:气候变化导致大尺度的大气环流异常,容易引起大范围的持久性旱涝事件;气候变化还可以通过影响地表覆被、土壤特性等下垫面条件加剧旱涝事件的风险;同时,气候变化还将影响经济社会需水量及过程,加剧水资源供需矛盾。
The driving mechanism of climate change on drought and flood events is analyzed from the perspec- tive of water circulation and water resources system. Related domestic and foreign research progress at present are summarized in the study of the impact of climate change on the weather systems, ground conditions, social-econom- ic water demand as well as relevant evaluation methods. It can be concluded that climate change has lead to large- scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, resulting in a wide range of persistent droughts and floods. Climate change can also increase the risk of droughts and floods through changing the ground conditions including land cover and soil characteristics. Meanwhile, an increase in social-economic water demand in the context of climate change will exacerbate the water shortage crisis.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期142-148,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951102)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51279207)
关键词
气候变化
旱涝事件
驱动机制
水循环
影响评估
climate change
drought and flood
driving mechanism
water circulation
impact evaluation
