摘要
2008年金融危机以来,全球大宗商品价格波动加剧,金融化特征十分明显。本文在分析2005—2012年我国月度农产品贸易条件指数变动的基础上,通过实证检验证明:2008年前,我国农产品价格贸易条件与CRB(美国商品调查局,下同)食品价格指数之间存在稳定的均衡关系,两者显著负相关,并且CRB食品价格指数上涨是我国农产品贸易条件恶化的Granger原因;2008年后,我国农产品价格贸易条件虽然波动频繁,但总体却趋于优化,贸易条件与CRB食品价格指数不存在线性相关。结合我国实际分析得出结论:大宗商品金融化尽管带来了农产品价格的大幅度波动和市场风险,但是其价格发现功能使我国农产品价格与国际市场接轨,因此价格贸易条件得以优化。
Since the 2008 financial crisis,the relationship between commodity prices,interest rates and exchange rates is more closely,which makes commodity's character of finance quite clear.Based on the analysis of monthly changes of the terms of trade index of China's agriculture products,this paper reveals that before 2008 the price terms of trade index of China's agriculture products have significant negative correlation with CRB Foodstuffs Sub-index,and the rising of CRB Foodstuffs Sub-index granger cause deterioration of terms of trade of agricultural products in China.After 2008,the price terms of trade index of agricultural products in China fluctuates frequently and is improved,but has insignificant correlation with CRB Foodstuffs Sub-index.Further analysis concluded;Financial of commodity although brought the agricultural product price fluctuation and market risk,but its price discovery function made domestic prices of Agriculture Products closer in line with global markets,which helps to improve the price terms of trade of China's Agriculture Products.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期51-57,111,共7页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(编号:13NDJC084YB)
浙江省社会科学重点研究基地项目(编号:JDJS01YB)
浙江省科协软科学项目(编号:KX13C-13)
浙江省商业经济学会项目(编号:2012SJZD001)
宁波市软科学项目(编号:2013A10049)
