摘要
目的分析目前POSSUM和P-POSSUM这两种广泛用于普外科手术风险预测的评分系统对肝胆手术患者术后并发症发生率和死亡率的预测价值。方法计算机检索PubMed、h e Cochrane Library(2013年第10期))、Science Citation Index、CNKI、WanFang Data和CBM数据库,查找关于在肝胆手术中使用POSSUM和/或P-POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率和死亡率的研究,检索时限均为从1991年至2013年10月。由2位评价员根据纳入与排除标准独立筛选文献、提取资料和评价纳入研究的方法学质量后,采用Comprehensive Meta Analysis Version 2软件进行Meta分析。结果共纳入10个研究。其中:5个研究(n=683)采用POSSUM预测了术后并发症发生率,其加权O/E=0.71,95%CI(0.60,0.81);7个研究(n=1?291)采用POSSUM预测了术后死亡率,其加权O/E=0.42,95%CI(0.27,0.57);6个研究(n=1?793)采用P-POSSUM预测了术后死亡率,其加权O/E=0.74,95%CI(0.53,0.95)。结论 POSSUM可能会高估肝胆手术患者的术后并发症发生率,而P-POSSUM对肝胆手术患者术后死亡率预测的准确性明显高于POSSUM。
ObjectiveThe Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity （POSSUM） model and its Portsmouth （P-POSSUM） modification are used extensively to predict post-operative mortality and morbidity in general surgery. The aim was to analysis the predictive value of these models in patients undergoing hepatobiliary surgery. MethodsEligible articles were identified by searching such electronic databases as PubMed, The Cochrane Library （Issue 10, 2013）, Science Citation Index, CNKI, WanFang Data and CBM from 1991 to October 2013. Each study was assessed according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Then data were extracted, pooled, and analyzed using Comprehensive Meta Analysis Version 2. ResultsTen studies were included. The morbidity analysis included five studies and 683 patients on POSSUM with a weighted O/E ratio 0.71 （95%CI 0.60 to 0.81）. The mortality analysis included seven studies with 1 291 patients on POSSUM and six studies with 1 793 patients on P-POSSUM. Weighted O/E ratios for mortality were 0.42 （95%CI 0.27 to 0.57） for POSSUM and 0.74 （95%CI 0.53 to 0.95） for P-POSSUM. ConclusionPOSSUM significantly overestimates postoperative morbidity in patients undergoing hepatobiliary surgery. Compared with the original POSSUM, P-POSSUM is more accurate for predicting post-operative mortality. Modifications to POSSUM and P-POSSUM are needed for audit in hepatobiliary surgery.
出处
《中国循证医学杂志》
CSCD
2014年第4期443-448,共6页
Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine
基金
上海高校青年教师培养资助计划--胆道系统肿瘤手术风险评估体系的评价与改良(编号:ZZjdyx12070)
国家科技支撑计划--精准肝胆外科技术体系的构建及循证评价(编号:2012BAI06B01)
