摘要
在世界范围内全球化已不再是单纯的经济问题,其与政治稳定、社会进步、发展质量有着越来越密切的关系。作者利用全球128个经济体在1975—2012年间的相关数据,采用动态面板模型检验全球化与政治稳定性对经济增长的影响,结果发现:其一,一个经济体经济全球化、社会全球化和政治全球化程度的提高均会显著地促进其经济增长。其二,政治稳定对经济增长有明显的促进作用。一个经济体主要领导人所属政党的执政年数越长就越有利于其经济增长。其三,通过考察全球化指数与政治稳定性之间相互作用对经济增长的影响,提出全球化与政治稳定性在促进经济增长上存在替代效应。即一个经济体全球化程度的提高降低了政治稳定性对促进经济增长的正向效应。在一个封闭的经济体内,政治稳定对经济增长的正向效应非常显著,但随着该经济体全球化程度的提升,不同利益团体可以在全球范围内获取资源、实现利益,从而降低了该经济体的经济增长对政治稳定性的依赖。
Using dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 128 economies from 1975 to 2012,the paper examines the effects of globalization and political stability on economic growth.The findings suggest;first,higher economic globalization,social globalization,and political globalization in an economy has contributed significantly to the growth rate of GDP per capita;second,the longer the party of the chief executive has been in office,the more significantly the positive effects have on economic growth,which indicates that political stability boosts economic growth significantly;third,the tests of the interaction effects of the reciprocities between globalization and political stability on economic growth suggest there are substitute effects between globalization and political stability in promoting economic growth,which shows that the improvement of globalization in an economy reduces the positive effects of political stability on its economic growth.Though the political stability has significant positive effect on economic growth in a closed economy,the different interest groups can access resources and realize benefits on a worldwide scope with the improving globalization of the economy,which reduces the dependence of economic growth on political stability.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期136-155,160,共20页
World Economics and Politics
基金
中国社会科学院马克思主义理论学科建设与理论研究项目资助
关键词
全球化
政治稳定性
经济增长
动态面板模型
替代效应
globalization
political stability
economic growth
dynamic panel data models
substitute effects
