摘要
通过系统梳理近几十年来国内外CGE模型发展和应用的研究文献发现:目前求解CGE模型的方法和软件虽然比较成熟,但在动态递归分析和宏观嵌套与闭合方面还不够完善,CGE模型在理论假设、数值获取、模型校准、参数估计及实际应用等方面还存在着种种缺陷,一定程度上制约了CGE模型实验效果和政策分析作用的发挥,不过随着CGE模型在模块构造、嵌套闭合以及动态递归技术上的突破,动态CGE分析技术在提高中长期预测和决策的准确性与科学性方面将会发挥更加巨大的优势。
In the past years scholars used to apply CGE models in the field of international trade, but now the method is used in various fields like tax revenue, environment and resources, national development strategy, labor employment and so on. At the same time, however, the limitations of CGE models in theoretical assumptions, model calibration, data acquisition and in- spection and practical application apparently restrict their advantages in policy analysis yet. Therefore, it＇s important to correct models and revise data to strengthen the empirical application of CGE models, which will help to put forward more practical policy suggestions for the harmonious development of the world in areas such as module construction in microscope, nesting and closure in microscope, and dynamic recursiveness and so on.
出处
《审计与经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期95-103,共9页
Journal of Audit & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金(71173101)
教育部人文社会科学基金(10YJA790198)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-10-0484)
教育部重点研究基地重大项目(11JJD790044
12JJD790034)
关键词
可计算一般均衡
社会核算矩阵
动态递归
嵌套与闭合
CGE模型
computable general equilibrium
social accounting matrix
dynamic recursiveness
nested and closure
CGE model
