摘要
研究危险品运输网络在遭受恐怖袭击后的级联失效过程和性质有助于指导系统建设和提高其抗毁性能.在分析危险品运输网络及恐怖袭击特性基础上,建立了双层危险品运输网络模型,通过定义网络的三种节点状态,分析了单次和连环袭击下的危险品运输网络级联失效过程,基于此,建立连环袭击下的危险品运输网络级联失效模型.从"结果性"和"过程性"两个视角出发,提出网络抗毁性的评价测度"节点存活率"和"相对二次级联失效数".通过建立实例仿真场景和仿真流程,就不同袭击次数、不同节点的度及容量系数和不同规划方式对危险品运输网络级联失效特性的影响进行仿真,验证了模型的可行性,仿真结果为危险品运输网络的规划提供决策依据.
To research the processes and features of cascading failure in hazardous materials transporta- tion network （HMTN） after attacked by terrorist is helpflll to guide system construction and improve its invulnerability. Based on the analysis of HMTN and characteristics of terrorist attacks, it established a two layers model for HMTN, and discussed the cascading failure process of HMTN under signal terrorist attack and series terrorist attacks by defining three types of node state. Based on this, it established the model of cascading failure in HMTN under series of terrorist attacks. From the perspective of ＂result＂ and ＂process＂, the invulnerability indicators and their calculation which are ＂node survival rate＂ and ＂number of the second relative cascading failure＂ were proposed. By establishing the scene and simulation flow chart, the different times of terrorist attacks, different node＇s degree, different capacity coefficient and dif- ferent planning mode of HMTN under cascading failure were quantitatively researched. Sinmlation results show that the model is feasible, and which can provide decision basis to tile planning of HMTN.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期1059-1065,共7页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(71173177)
轨道交通安全协同创新中心(2011计划)
关键词
连环恐怖袭击
危险品运输网络
抗毁性
级联失效
series of terrorist attacks
hazardous materials transportation network
invulnerability
cascading failure
