摘要
目的探讨北京市中暑发病人数与关键气象因子之间的关系，提出适用于该地区的中暑等级气象判据。方法分析北京市海淀区3家医院2009-2011年236例中暑病例的分布特征；以同期逐日13个气象要素资料为基础，派生出当日与前1-4d各要素的累积平均值及发病前1-4d各要素值，共117个气象因子。采用相关分析探讨影响中暑的关键气象因子。结果中暑高峰期为6月下旬至8月中旬，男女性中暑高峰年龄均为20～49岁。温度是导致中暑的决定性因子，日均气温、日最高和最低气温、累积平均温度、前期温度均与中暑发病人数呈正相关（P〈0．01），其中累积温度效应大于当日及滞后温度效应。累积4d平均气温（T4）、连续变温天数（TD）、相对湿度、降水对7月和6、8月13均中暑人数均有影响。以T4、降水日（RD）、TD为指标，建立了中暑等级气象判据，7月和6、8月的预报准确率分别为68．8％和70．5％。结论中暑等级气象判据具有较好的拟合效果，可为有关部门及市民提供出行服务指南。
Objective To build the meteorological criterion of heatstroke grade on the basis of the association between heat stroke cases and key meteorological factors in Beijing. Methods Based on the data of 236 heatstroke cases and daily meteorological factors from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing, the distribution characteristics of heatstroke cases were analyzed in detail, the correlation between daily heatstroke numbers and 117 meteorological factors was explored and the key meteorological factors were chosen by using correlative analysis method. Results The heatstroke cases concentrated in every year from late June to mid August, most people suffered heatstroke were from 20 to 49 years old. It also showed that temperature, especially the accumulated high temperature, was the decisive factor which caused heatstroke at Beijing. The warming days, relative humidity and rainfall had the different impact on heatstroke onset in June, August and July, respectively. The meteorological criterion of heatstroke grade had better fitting effect as the accuracy rate reached 68.8% and 70.5% from June to August, Conclusion The meteorological criterion and heatstroke grade fitting effect is satisfactory in the present study.
出处
《环境与健康杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期143-147,共5页
Journal of Environment and Health
基金
国家公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201106034)
国家人口与健康科学数据共享平台"气象环境与健康"专题服务建设项目
关键词
中暑
分布特征
气象因素
气温
累积效应
Heatstroke
Distribution characteristics
Meteorological factor
Temperature
Accumulative effect
