摘要
上游电站运行改变了待建电站施工洪水的分布特性,采用传统方法无法保证风险计算结果的准确性.为此,针对某梯级水电站的施工导流,考虑施工洪水特征量之间的相关性,采用Copula函数建立洪水峰、量联合分布,描述上游电站断面洪水和区间洪水的随机性.在此基础上,以洪水沿河道演进为序,通过耦合上游电站调度模块、河道洪水演进模块和洪水地区组成模块,建立导流系统施工洪水计算模型,进而以堰前最高水位为风险指标,建立导流系统风险估算模型.通过工程实例验证了模型的有效性和可行性,可为变化环境下施工导流标准的拟定提供技术参考.
The distribution characteristics of the construction flood of the hydropower station can be altered with the operation of upstream hydropower station, which may lead to the inaccuracy of risk calculation results if the traditional method is adopted. Therefore, in allusion to the river diversion of a cascade hydropower station, considering the correlation of the flood characteristics, the randomness of the flood of upstream hydropower station and interval-basin is described with the joint probability distribution of flood peak and flood volume, which is constructed based on the Copula function. On the basis, along the flood routed in the river channel, the construction flood calculation model is established by coupling the module of the operation of upstream hydropower station, routing of the river flood and the composition of regional flood. Furthermore, the risk estimation model of diversion system is constructed by taking the maximum water level of the cofferdam as the risk index. An engineering example is given to validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model, so as to offer the technical reference for river diversion flood standard development in the changing condition.
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期189-192,共4页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51279137)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(编号:2012206020210)
关键词
施工导流
风险分析
COPULA函数
MONTE
Carlo
联合分布
梯级电站
construction river diversion
risk analysis
Copula function
Monte Carlo
joint probability distribution
cascade hydropower stations
