摘要
城镇化是一个国家或地区经济发展的必经途径,同时也是衡量某地区经济发展水平的重要标志之一。城镇化进程不仅关系到区域人口、经济和环境的可持续发展,还关系到区域平衡与区域生产效率,以致关系到区域的综合竞争力。利用2001—2011年吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态方面的相关数据,剖析吐鲁番地区城镇化系统,选出并构建吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态4个城镇化系统的6个评价指标体系,对指标进行定量分析;计算城镇化4个系统以及城镇化发展水平的综合评价指数及其各系统的协调度,根据各子系统评价指数建立数学模型,分析吐鲁番地区城镇化驱动因子以及制约该地区城镇化进程的影响因素;并推算出吐鲁番地区城镇化的变化和发展趋势。
The urbanization is the necessary way for the economic development of a country or region and at the same time one of the important signs to measure the level of economic development in a region. This study focu- ses on the urbanization in Turpan area to analyze the situation and the coordination of the urbanization development in the oasis of the arid area. By building the index system of urbanization in population, economy, society and ecology system including 16 evaluation index and using the entropy-based weight to determine the weight of each in- dex, with the weighted sum of the Turpan area in 2001-2011, the urbanization of the composite index were quanti- tatively analyzed. Based on the situation of urbanization, the coordination of the urbanization is calculated and the future development trend on the mathematical models is predicted. On this basis, the development trend of Turpan area in the future is predicted with linear-regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method. Through the a- bove information, the main driving force and the restricting factors of urbanization development in Turpan area can be found. Then, the specific suggestions and opinions in the development of the urbanization in Turpan area, even in the arid area are put forward. The innovation of this study is the study area located in the arid zone in oasis area and then the calculation of the coordination in the urbanization development process. Therefore, a more in-depth understanding of urbanization in the arid zone in oasis area is achieved.
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期420-428,共9页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"吐鲁番绿洲人与自然耦合系统变化的驱动与适应机制研究"(编号:41271168)资助
关键词
城镇化
人口
经济
社会
生态
Urbanization
Population
Economy
Society
Ecology.
