摘要
利用浙江省84个气象站1980—2009年降雨量资料，运用Mann—Kendall非参数检验、突变点检测和径向基函数插值等方法，分析了全省降雨量变化的时空分布特征。结果表明：近30年来浙江省降雨量长期变化趋势不显著，但存在3次明显的突变；在年内，春冬两季降雨量变化趋势显著的气象站比例高，其中春季下降趋势显著，3月为主要贡献月份，冬季上升趋势显著，主要贡献月份为1月和12月；全省多年平均降雨量由北往南递增，典型月份的降雨量变化趋势与对应季节的降雨量变化趋势具有相似的空间分布特征。结果可为完善区域水资源调度机制、加强区域防洪抗旱工程体系建设等提供参考。
Based on the rainfall data from 1980 to 2009 collected by 84 meteorological stations, the variations of rainfall in Zhejiang Province were analyzed by using the non - parametric Mann - Kendall test, abrupt change points detecting and radial basis function interpolation. The results indicated that there are no significant changes in the long -term mean annual rainfall, but three abrupt change points were detected. Within the year, high proportions of meteorological stations with rainfall variation tendency significantly appeared in spring and winter. Significant downward trend of rainfall occurred in spring, especially in March, while significant increases of rainfall occurred in winter, especially in January and December. There is an increasing trend in mean annual rainfall from the north to the south of Zhejiang Province. The spatial - temporal characteristics of variation tendency of rainfall were similar between the typical month and its season. The results obtained would be useful for perfecting water resources dispatch system and the strengthening of the construction of flood - drought prevention project.
出处
《亚热带水土保持》
2014年第1期9-14,共6页
Subtropical Soil and Water Conservation
基金
浙江省水利河口研究院院长基金资助项目"钱塘江流域降雨侵蚀力模型研究"(水保A10003)
