摘要
利用2007年11月—2009年12月京石(北京-石家庄)高速公路沿线气象站的人工观测资料、自动站资料和交通气象自动站资料,对低能见度雾天气进行分级统计,找出各级雾的生消特征。应用天气学原理和数理统计方法对低能见度雾的生消机理进行研究,利用相关分析找出了与低能见度雾的生消有密切关系的气象因子,建立能见度与气象因子之间的回归方程;在此基础上,结合对低能见度雾的成因分析和预报经验,加入降水因子和大气稳定度因子,建立低能见度雾的分级预报方程,找出各级雾的生消判别指标,为低能见度雾的分级客观化预报奠定基础。各预报因子采用MM5精细化数值预报产品,并通过自动站实时监测资料和预报员的综合预报结果对数值预报产品进行合理订正,得到预报时刻各气象因子的值,从而实现低能见度雾的分级客观化预报。
Using data of automatic weather stations （A WSs） and weather stations in November 2007 to December 2009, low-visibility fog along the Beijing-Shijiazhuang Expressway is analyzed and the temporal characteristics of appearance and disappearance for various levels of fog are summarized. Based on the principles of synoptic meteorology and methods of mathematical and physical statistics, the mechanism of fog appearance and disappearance is studied and meteorological factors closely related with the low-visibility fog are identified. Combining stepwise regression analysis and diagnostic analysis, this work establishes prediction equations for the different levels of fog. Using the MM5 mesoscale numerical prediction products, real-time data from A WSs, and integrated forecasts by the forecaster, predictors are reasonably corrected to determine the values of individual meteorological factors for the forecast time, thus making it possible to perform objective forecasts of various levels oflow-visibility fog.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期161-166,共6页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
关键词
应用气象学
预报方法
数理统计
雾分级
模式产品
applied meteorology
forecast method
mathematical and physical statistics
fog classification
numerical prediction products
