摘要
在对水贫困相关理论理解的基础上,以灾害风险管理作为研究切入点,构建中国农村水贫困风险评价指标体系,指标体系由经济、社会、生态和资源4个子系统共44个指标组成。对2000-2011年我国31个省(市)地区农村水贫困风险进行测算的情况下,将各省份4个子系统风险得分与农村水贫困风险得分进行比较分析,得到不同地区子系统发展状况,为降低水贫困风险状况,实现子系统的适应性发展寻找方向。进一步了解我国农村水贫困风险的空间分布状况,利用有序聚类,对31个地区进行分类,将农村水贫困状况分为3类:高度风险水贫困、中度风险水贫困、低度风险水贫困,分析结果表明:我国农村水贫困状况呈现出从东南向西北地区不断加剧的发展趋势,大部分省(市)农村地区属于中高度风险水贫困状况,低度风险水贫困多为东部沿海省份,农村经济发展水平较高,农村地区社会配套设施完善,水贫困风险压力较小,但应积极协调各系统综合发展,降低子系统灾害风险,实现农村水资源的可持续利用。
In this paper based on the understanding of the related theories with water poverty,the disaster risk management was set as a key point and the index system with risk measurement of rural water poverty in China was established.The index system consists of 44 indexes,including 4 sub-systems,which are economic system,social system,ecological system and resource system.After evaluating the water poverty risk of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2000 to 2011,the scores of the 4 sub-systems risk were compared with those of the rural water poverty risk in each province.The results showed the development situation of sub-systems in different regions.The water poverty risk was reduced and meanwhile the direction of realizing the adaptive development of the subsystems was found.Furthermore,the spatial distribution pattern of rural water poverty risk in China was analyzed.Specifically,by classifying the 31 regions using the clustering of ordered sample,the situation of the rural water poverty were classified into 3 categories：high risk of water poverty,moderate risk of water poverty and low risk of water poverty.The results indicated that the degree of rural water poverty accelerated increased from southeast to northwest in China.Most of the rural areas belonged to moderate and high risk of water poverty,while the rural areas with low water poverty risks usually were the eastern coastal provinces.The reason was that,in these areas,the rural economic development level was relatively high and the social supporting facilities were perfect.Moreover,the pressure of water poverty risk in these areas was lower.However,we should still actively coordinate the comprehensive development of each system in order to reduce the disaster risk of the sub-systems and to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in the rural areas.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期83-92,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(编号:11BJY063)
新世纪优秀人才项目(编号:NCET-13-0844)
关键词
农村水贫困
灾害风险指数
主客观赋权法
rural water poverty
disaster risk index
objective and subjective weights method
