摘要
伴随着居民收入增加而引起的膳食结构升级对食物生产用地需求的影响越来越大。根据居民食物摄入数据分析了1961-2009年间我国食物生产用地需求的变化情况及膳食结构因素对其变化的贡献率,并预测了不同膳食模式下我国人口高峰年食物生产用地的需求状况,结果如下:我国人均食物生产用地需求以1984年为节点呈现先下降后上升的"v"字型变化趋势,在居民日常摄入的5大类食物中,人均谷类和豆类消费所需农地面积出现下降,而人均动物性食物、蔬菜和纯能量类食物消费所需农地则呈上升态势;我国食物生产用地总需求总体上以1984年为界分为先稳定发展后急速增长两个阶段,前一阶段我国食物生产用地总需求量保持在12.5亿亩/年左右,而后一阶段则从1984年的需求12.75亿亩迅速上升至2009年的22.82亿亩;1984年之后居民膳食摄入变化已成为影响我国食物生产用地需求增长的首要因素,其贡献率达57.7%,而同时期人口增长因素的贡献率仅为42.3%;预测居民在保持当前膳食结构不变与转向平衡膳食模式两种情景下,我国在人口高峰年分别共需食物生产用地25.19亿亩和20.33亿亩,后者比前者节省土地需求4.86亿亩。
The change of dietary pattern caused by the increase of residents＇ income is increasingly impacts on land requirements for food in our country.On the basis of the residents＇ food consumption data from 1961 to 2009,this paper analyzed the change law of land requirments for food in the past year and the contribution rate of residents＇ diety pattern to this change,it also forecasted the area of land requirements for food under different dietary patterns in the peak year of population.The main results are as follows：Per capita land requirement for food had showed a v-shape tendency,which had dropped before 1984 and risen after 1984.Among the five category food of cereals,beans,animal products,vegetables and energy food,land requirements for per capita consumption of cereals and beans reflects an descending tendency,while land requirements for per capita consumption of animal products,vegetables and energy food shows an upward trend.The year 1984 divided the study period into two phases,during which the total land requirements for food tends to hold steady before 1984 and then increase rapidly after 1984.In the previous phase,land requirements for food is around 1.25 billion mu,and in the second phases it is sharply increased from 1.275 billion mu in 1984 to 2.282 billion mu in 2009.After the year 1984,the contribution of the change of dietary pattern to land requirements for food was 57.7％,and at the same time the contribution rate of population growth was 42.3％.It is predicted that at the balance diet mode land requirements for food will be 2.033 billion mu in the peak year of population,which is 486 million mu less than the land demand at today＇ s dietary pattern.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期54-60,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(编号:2011B04114)
关键词
膳食结构
食物生产用地
贡献率
食物安全
dietary pattern
land required for food
contribution rate
food security
