摘要
干旱与洪涝是极端水文事件中最具有代表性的水文事件，在气候变化的影响下旱涝灾害事件越来越引起人们的关注．采用传统的气象干旱指标一标准化降水指数SPI和小波分析法、反距离加权法以及线性回归分析，研究了近300a来塔里木河流域早涝灾害分布特征及关键影响因素．结果表明：近300a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害呈增加的趋势，且洪涝事件较干旱事件明显．其中，喀什、阿克苏等地的发生频率最高，并表现为群发性；近60a塔里木河流域自西向东旱涝灾害事件呈交替现象．小波分析结果表明，塔里木河流域旱涝灾害呈现15a的周期性，由此推断未来5～10a研究区湿润化面积仍有扩大的可能．大气环流指数与多尺度下的SPI指相关性检验表明，PNA对秋季和冬季的SPI值的影响较为显著；旱涝灾害对农牧业的影响较为严重，其中，洪涝灾害的影响大于干旱．
Drought and flood are the most representative extreme hydrological event, which arouse more and more people＇s concern under the background of global change. In this paper, using traditional meteorological drought index-standardized precipitation index （SPI） and wavelet analysis, inverse distance weighting interpola- tion method and regression analysis to analyze the distribution of droughts and flood and key controlling factors in the Tarim River basin in recent 300 years. It is found that the drought and flood events have significantly in- creased in recent 300 years; flood events are more serious than drought events; frequently occur and cluster to- gether in Kashgar, Aksu and other place; drought and flood have taken place alternately from west to east of the Tarim River in nearly 60 years; there was 15-year periodicity of disasters in the Tarim River basin; in the study area humidification will strengthen in the further 5-10 years; PNA impacting the fall and winter＇s SPI values are more significant; finally, droughts and floods have more serious impact on the industry of agriculture and animal husbandry, especially the flood disaster.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期173-182,共10页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家自然科学基金重点基金项目(40830640)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB421302)资助
