摘要
介绍了水氡滑动变化率的计算公式 ,滑动变化率的演化与地震时间的统计关系 ,据此给出了水氡滑动变化率值发震时间预测的步骤、判断指标和方法。结合震例 ,对预测效能进行了评价。检验性预测结果表明 ,预测的发震期限为 1～ 1 2个月 ,平均 5.1个月。
This paper introduced the computation formula of groundwater radon slip change rate, statistical relation between slip change rate evolution and origin time of earthquake occurrence, on this basis, the step of origin time prediction by using groundwater radon slip change rate value, judgement index and method are given. Combining the earthquake cases, the prediction efficiency is evaluated, result indicates that the predicted origin time range is 1～12 month, the average is 5.1 month. This method may apply to medium and short term earthquake prediction.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第1期85-90,共6页
Earthquake
基金
中国地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!( 95-0 4 -0 4 -0 1 -0 4 )
关键词
水氡
滑动变化率
发震时间
中短期预报
Groundwater radon
Slip change rate
Earthquake origin time
Mid and shor term anomaly
